Anthony Volpe's Swing Changes Have Looked Promising

Today, I’m wondering about Anthony Volpe’s ability to make the necessary changes he needs to become a more consistent offensive threat. As I’ll explain, I think Volpe is a very important player this season for the Yankees and he can’t be a black hole in the lineup as he often was last year. And then I have the usual array of observations about what has been going on in Florida now that the spring training schedule is fully underway - some good, some not so good.

We all know with the Yankees that the biggest key to anything they may or may not do this season revolves around their health. Yes, that’s true for most teams, but most teams aren’t the Yankees when it comes to injuries.

They’ve had an absurd amount of injuries, some of it due to age, some of it due to bad luck. In just the last two seasons, they used 30 pitchers and 24 position players in 2023, and in 2022 it was 33 pitchers and 22 position players. By comparison, the great 1998 Yankees used 19 of each. Just sayin’.

For the purpose of today’s newsletter, as impossible as it is to do, I’m taking health out of the equation when considering the primary keys to this season, and I believe one of the biggest is Anthony Volpe’s development as a hitter.

I know, that sounds a little odd because obviously there are several things that have to go right for the Yankees if they hope to get back to the postseason - Juan Soto and Aaron Judge being great, Giancarlo Stanton not being completely useless, Anthony Rizzo bouncing back from his concussion, and the starting rotation being competent behind Gerrit Cole.

But Volpe is a major part of this as well. I’m pretty sure DJ LeMahieu is going to get the first chance to be the leadoff hitter, but I don’t have a world of confidence that at the age of 35 he’s going to reverse the decline he’s been in the past two seasons. Alex Verdugo might get the next chance, and he handled those duties pretty well for Boston last season as he batted No. 1 in 79 games and hit .280, though his on-base was a ho-hum .331.

However, long term, I think Volpe could be a terrific leadoff man, but that’s not going to happen until he learns how to hit in the major leagues.

It was nice that Volpe won the Gold Glove at shortstop, even though that felt like a bit of a reach by the voters. Seriously, did any of you think he was Gold Glove caliber after watching him all season? He was certainly good - especially when you compare him to the last two Yankee shortstops, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Gleyber Torres - but was he Gold Glove worthy? I was happy for the kid, but I really didn’t expect that to happen.

I digress. His defense is perfectly fine, but at the plate, there’s no other way to say it - he was bad and he needs to take a quantum leap offensively in 2024.

Yes, he became just the sixth rookie in MLB history (and the first Yankee) to hit at least 20 home runs and steal at least 20 bases. That’s a nice sentence to put on his resume, but here’s what I would say to that - what did he do with the other 580 plate appearances he had?

As I told you last week, among 136 players who had at least 500 plate appearances in 2023, his .283 on-base percentage was 135th, ahead of only Javier Baez of the Tigers. Among the 74 players who had 600 plate appearances, his 167 strikeouts were tied for 13th-most and his strikeout rate of 27.7% was sixth-worst. Striking out that many times should be the domain of power hitters, not a speedy 5-foot-9, 180-pound shortstop.

With his speed, just imagine what he could have done on the base paths if he was on them more often, rather than walking back to the dugout with his bat in his hands after striking out?

Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated had this incredible note: Volpe’s .209 batting average was the worst by a qualified Yankee (meaning averaging at least 3.1 plate appearances per game) in 55 years and no Yankee has ever had a lower average while striking out that often in one season. You thought I was kidding about how bad he actually was?

Thankfully, Volpe and the Yankees hitting coaches have recognized the issue and they are revamping his swing. So far, the results have been promising.

Now, I’m not dumb enough to read too much into his numbers in the first week of March, some of it against minor league pitching, but in the first six games he has played this spring, Volpe looks better. He’s 5-for-13 with a double, a triple, two RBI and a drum roll please … just one strikeout.

He is working to swing with less of an uppercut and a flatter plane to the ball, and he’s trying to get away from being so pull happy by using the entire field. Saturday he batted leadoff against the Orioles and he ripped the first pitch of the game from righty Cole Irvin to right for a single. In the third, he grounded Irvin’s first pitch up the middle for another single. His last at bat against reliever Diego Castillo was a pop out to second.

“I feel comfortable with it,” Volpe said of the changes he’s trying to make. “I’m not thinking about anything, just going out there and playing. That’s always a nice feeling. The goal is just making me the hitter I know I can be and I know I should be. I think the best hitters have high average and don’t strike out, so that’s the goal.”

Volpe can’t be a black hole in the lineup, plain and simple. I would guess he’s going to start the year batting ninth, and what the Yankees will expect is for him to turn the lineup over by getting on base so the guys at the top can try to get him home. It’s an underrated part of the game, the No. 9 hitter starting things off successfully at the start of an inning, or keeping a rally going, and Volpe has to be much better at it.

⚾ Outfielder Spencer Jones looks like a future star for the Yankees, and this would qualify as big news because the Yankees have not done a great job in recent years of developing position players from their system. As I said, if Volpe learns to hit, he could become a successful graduate, catcher Austin Wells will get a chance to earn his pinstripes this year, and we’ll see about outfielder Jasson Dominguez when he returns sometime in the summer.

As for Jones, he sure looks the part. He’s 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, and he runs like the wind. He stole 43 bases between High-A and Double-A last season, in addition to hitting 16 home runs, so that’s a very exciting profile. His one weakness is swing and miss, and there’s a lot of it. He struck out 155 times last year which computed to 29.9% of his at bats, the fifth-highest of any player in the system, and that was in the low minors. He’ll probably start at Double-A and should get to Triple-A at some point this year, but unless there’s a major injury epidemic - never out of the question - I don’t think he’s going to be in the Bronx until perhaps 2025. Still, he’s going to be a fun player to keep track of and I hope he’s in Triple-A by the time Scranton/Wilkes-Barre makes its first trip to Rochester in mid-June so I can see him.

⚾ I loved the confidence Clarke Schmidt displayed after his first start of the spring the other day. He heard all offseason how the Yankees needed to upgrade the rotation, and if they signed two free agents that he would be the odd man out. They ended up only getting Marcus Stroman because Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery aren’t coming to New York, so the No. 5 spot is Schmidt’s to lose and he does not intend to do that.

He pitched two innings and gave up two hits and a run with one strikeout, so it wasn’t exactly great. But he must have felt like he had great stuff because he said, “Fans are going to be really excited with how I perform. I’m just going to show people this year like … the proof is in the pudding. And I think for me, I learned a lot from last year and I know what I’m capable of doing. I know how high my ceiling can get. I’m very, very excited to show the fans that, too.” I really like Schmidt and I hope he overcomes his inconsistency and becomes a reliable pitcher.

⚾ Speaking of the rotation, Clayton Beeter sure looked good in his second outing. In his first against the Tigers he gave up two runs on two hits and two walks with three strikeouts in two innings, but then against the Marlins he pitched three scoreless, allowing three hits and a walk with four strikeouts.

Beeter has a real chance to be the first man called up from Triple-A if the Yankees have an injury in the rotation. The 25-year-old righty came from the Dodgers in the 2022 trade for Joey Gallo, so Beeter succeeding would at least make some of us feel better about the whole Gallo fiasco. Walks have been a problem as he averaged an untenable 5.6 last year in 15 appearances at Triple-A, but if he reigns that in, his ceiling is pretty high.

⚾ The Yankees signed Cody Morris thinking he’d have a great chance to earn a spot as a middle reliever, but he’s not off to a great start. After Stroman pitched four scoreless innings Saturday against the Orioles, Morris basically threw batting practice in the fifth inning as he got lit up for five runs on three hits and two walks. That was pretty disappointing.

⚾ While I’m on the subject of struggling relievers, Ron Marinaccio is a mess. After his surprising 2022 rookie season and nice start to 2023, he has fallen off the cliff. In the eighth inning Sunday he faced four Tigers and got none of them out - two hits, two walks, and all four men scored before Aaron Boone yanked him. His spring ERA is now 19.29 with a 3.43 WHIP in three appearances and 2.1 innings. I’d be shocked if he’s not in Triple-A to start the year.

⚾ At the other end of the spectrum from Morris and Marinaccio in the bullpen is Nick Burdi. He signed a minor league deal in December and no one expected anything, but he has been an impressive performer so far. “Stuff’s as good as it gets,” Boone said last week.

In college at Louisville he struck out an incredible 47% of the batters he faced and the Twins picked him in the 24th round of the 2014 draft. But injuries have dogged him for most of his time in pro baseball and he’s made only 19 appearances with the Pirates and Cubs. He’s 31 years old, but there’s not a lot of mileage on his arm and he’s been throwing in the upper 90s. Boone was wowed by how he threw in live batting practice, and in two innings of game work he’s allowed one run on three hits and a walk with five strikeouts and 19 of his 23 pitches have been strikes.

⚾ One role the Yankees need to figure out is who they can deploy as a multi-inning reliever. That was something Michael King excelled at the past couple years before he moved into the rotation late last season. King is now a Padre, and one of the candidates to replace him is apparently Ian Hamilton.

Last year Hamilton was a big surprise last season. He had only 15 career appearances in the majors since 2018 but he pitched in 39 games and posted a 2.64 ERA. In 20 of those he faced at least six batters so he has the ability to do be the multi-inning man, but he also knows King will be tough to replace. “Not easy,” Hamilton said of that job. “Especially doing that damn near every time when there’s no one out and with runners on. He’s a big dude, and those are big shoes to fill. I don’t think you can replace him, but you can definitely try to fill other roles, and see who can fit roles the best.”