Gerrit Cole's Absence is a Massive Blow for the Yankees

Today, I have some thoughts on the Gerrit Cole situation. Obviously, it was great news that he doesn’t apparently need surgery, at least not yet. Still, not having him for probably the first three months - which is the timeline I’m putting on it - is a tremendous blow. 

With Cole out, and the guys in the rotation bumping up a spot, there are a few contenders in the mix to become the fifth starter and I’ll break down who they are. I also have more injury woes to discuss, a thought on the Yankees choice for Opening Day starter, and a look at the Spring Prospects game. Let’s get to it.

Well, it sure could have been worse news regarding Gerrit Cole, I suppose. Then again, it could have been better.

“Best-case scenario, he wouldn’t be dealing with anything, right?” Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said on Saturday. “But I guess this is the second-best case.”

My thoughts exactly. Learning late last week that the ace would not need Tommy John surgery on his sore pitching elbow was a relief because that would have meant Cole would be a figment of our imagination until the middle of the 2025 season which is an unfathomable thought given how important he is to the Yankees.

But then there’s the pessimistic side of me - which as many of you know is typically my prominent side - that reminds me just how maddening the Yankees’ injury situation continues to be. Look, I know every team suffers injuries, but the Yankees certainly take it to an absurd level year after year after year. Their miserable luck knows no bounds and now it has its hooks in a guy who was seemingly indestructible.

You could say that Cole was due because he has been so healthy ever since he made his MLB debut with the Pirates in 2013. He started at least 30 games in every season since 2017, with the exception of the 2020 Covid year and even then, he made all 12 he was scheduled for. His 33 starts in both 2022 and 2023 were the most in the AL so OK, it’s probably overdue for Cole to be stricken.

Still, it sucks, and this injury - plus whatever is going on with Aaron Judge and his abs - sure stuck a pin in the excitement there was for the start of the season.

As for when we can expect Cole to return, I’m not buying this bullshit timeline of one to two months the Yankees are putting out there. That’s not happening because there’s no way the Yankees are going to rush Cole. He’ll hate it, and he’s gonna want to push hard to get back on the mound, but the crack Yankees medical staff will slow play this thing because he’s too valuable. That way, it should increase the chances that he can be as close to 100 percent for the second half of the season when they will be making their push for whatever it is they’re pushing for - a division title, though more likely a wild-card berth.

Due to the diagnosis of nerve inflammation and edema (swelling caused by a buildup of fluid), Cole won’t even be throwing for another four weeks. Once that begins, he’s not going to come out firing 98 so it will take time to regain full strength, velocity and command. I’ll be stunned if we see Cole on a mound before June.

So now, the humongous question becomes this: With everyone in the rotation moving up a spot - Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman at the top, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt in the middle - who will be the fifth starter? And since we all know at least one of those guys will get hurt and miss time - there’s that pessimistic side of me again, but you know I’m probably right - who will be the sixth and possibly seventh starters?

“I certainly like some of our options more than others,” Cashman said. “Like anything else, you learn a lot when you’re down here. Every outing, you get more information on everybody. I feel good about our internal options. At the same time, it’s never stopped us from having external conversations regardless. That was going on before this, it’ll continue to go on until pencils down at the end of July.”

I do not expect the Yankees to sign either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery who are still lingering in free agency. That was never going to happen, Cole injury or not, because the cost is outrageous thanks to the Yankees’ competitive balance tax situation. I thought they’d have a chance to trade for Dylan Cease, but the White Sox were reportedly asking for outfielder Spencer Jones as part of the compensation, and Cashman wisely backed away, so Cease wound up in San Diego.

Oddly enough, the main piece of that deal going back to Chicago was Drew Thorpe, formerly a top Yankee prospect who would have been in line for the No. 5 job in New York, but he was sent to the Padres in the trade that brought Juan Soto to the Yankees.

Michael Lorenzen, who has been a starter and reliever, has been mentioned as a possible pickup. He threw a no-hitter last year for the Phillies, but he’s largely been a mediocrity since debuting with the Reds in 2015 (40-38, 4.11 ERA, 1.325 WHIP with 69 starts in 342 career games).

Assuming Cashman truly believes in his “internal options” then here’s what we’re looking at: Clayton Beeter, Luke Weaver, Cody Poteet and Luis Gil who are already on the 40-man roster, and Will Warren who would have to be added, though that’s easy enough because the Yankees will eventually place Cole on the 60-day injured list which will open a spot for Warren if the Yankees deem him worthy.

“I feel like we have a number of different choices to consider, and that’s a good thing,” Cashman said. “A number of people have thrown well, whether it’s what Gil just recently showed us - and we already know what he had done prior to the Tommy John surgery and we know what he’s capable of. What Warren continues to do, Beeter has had a good camp and shown his wares here in his first major league camp. Poteet has done well. Luke Weaver has been there and done that. I think we’ll just have a lot of conversations wrapped around at least all those guys.”

The easy thing would be to go with Weaver because he’s a 30-year-old veteran who has been there and done that. Of course, he’s also a guy with a career 5.14 ERA and has bounced around to six teams since he debuted with the Cardinals in 2016. I’d rather they keep him as a sixth starter and let him be a middle or long reliever.

Beeter had looked good this spring until Sunday. He had allowed only two runs in nine innings with three walks and 11 strikeouts, but the Red Sox got to him for three runs on five hits and a walk across four innings. The former Dodgers prospect just reached Triple-A late last year and had a 5.07 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 14 starts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, so he might need a little more seasoning at that level.

Warren also got roughed up by the Red Sox. He started the game and while he got burned by two infield errors by non-starters, he also gave up a three-run homer to Trevor Story, two singles and a double as part of a nine-run first-inning disaster; six of the runs were charged to him, though only two were earned. Aaron Boone took him out to give him a break, and because spring training rules allow for re-entry, he went back out and threw two nice innings where he allowed just a single. I liked the grit he showed in doing that. Like Beeter, Warren also made his Triple-A debut last season when he went 7-4 with a 3.61 ERA for S/WB and I think he’s probably starting down there as well.

Poteet was signed in January after he missed all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery and he has just 19 career appearances with the Marlins in 2021-22. He has only thrown 5.2 innings across three appearances this spring and he’s been outstanding. Batters are hitting a sickly .158 against him and he has not allowed a run on three hits and a walk with seven strikeouts. But is he sufficiently stretched out enough to begin making starts in two weeks? It seems like he’s going to be a bullpen option and spot starter/

And then there’s Gil, who might be the best candidate. He’s another Tommy John alumnus who missed most of 2022 and all of 2023 but returned to pitch two games in the low minors last year. With another offseason to get ready, Gil has been very good with a 2.31 ERA, a .125 average against and a 0.77 WHIP in 11.2 innings and his 18 strikeouts are the most of any Yankee this spring. His last two appearances were starts and he struck out eight in 3.2 innings against the Phillies and then pitched 3.1 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Saturday.

“Really good to see him having confidence to be able to throw his secondary stuff for strikes, which allows his heater, which is elite, to play up,” Boone said, adding “we’ll see” when he was asked if Gil can be built up enough to crack the early-season rotation.

As I said, my money is on Weaver as the No. 5, but I also think Gill will be in that spot before too long.

⚾ Everyone, most of all Judge, is pooh-poohing his injury situation, but I’m not sure why. If he felt enough discomfort in his abs to need an MRI, that’s a cause for concern, especially with him. He once again did not take live batting practice Sunday, he hasn’t played in a game for a week. The Yankees say he’ll be fine, but why would we ever believe anything the Yankees tell us about injuries? They are pathological liars when it comes to health updates.

What really bothers me about this latest Judge malady is that it was apparently due to Judge swinging almost every day in the offseason. Not to go all old school here, but back in the day, players didn’t spend their entire offseason lifting weights and swinging or throwing. They rested after a long 162-game season. And did we see nearly the amount of injuries to those players that we see from today’s super athletes? No.

Why did Judge feel the need to swing so much in the offseason, to the point where he was worn out three weeks into spring training? Again, the Yankees’ methods really rankle me. He shouldn’t have had a bat in his hands until a month before the start of spring training, but hey, that’s just me.

⚾ More injury stuff because, well … DJ LeMahieu fouled a ball off his foot Saturday and now he’s down for a little bit. X-rays were negative so that’s good, but given LeMahieu’s foot problems of the past, of course it’s something to worry about. He’s just 6-for-27 (.222) so far in 10 games, and this won’t help. “Hopefully, it’s just a day-to-day thing,” Boone said. “But he got it pretty good.”

⚾ The Spring Breakout series was certainly a hit for the Yankees. MLB came up with this idea of having the top prospects on every team join together to play one game against another team’s top prospects. The Yankees’ opponent was the Blue Jays and they rolled to a 9-1 victory thanks in large part to outfielder Spencer Jones who is certainly turning heads, even now that he has been shipped to minor league camp.

Jones cranked a pair of home runs, a two-run shot in the first and a solo job in the fifth, and had an RBI single. The starting pitcher in the game, Drew Selvidge, threw four scoreless, one-hit innings with eight strikeouts. Jones is likely to start the season at Double-A, while Selvidge will probably be in High-A at Hudson Valley.

⚾ Cortes will be the Opening Day starter in Houston because Boone wants to keep Rodon in the second game, and Stroman decided that he wanted to stay on his current ramp-up schedule which slots him in as the third game starter. Some people overreacted to that, but it’s fine. If that’s where he’s comfortable, then leave him be. As for Rodon, I think Boone is hesitant to put him into a big spot like Opening Day given what his 2023 season looked like, and the already mounting pressure that he will be under to not only bounce back, but to carry a heavier load with Cole out. Nothing bothers Cortes, so he was the obvious choice. However, his 8.10 spring ERA is bothersome.

⚾ Another reminder that spring training stats generally mean nothing, but just to update you on a few things, here’s what’s been happening. Even Juan Soto is prone to a slump. After a blazing start, Soto has gone 0-for-12 in his last few games, but he’s still hitting .300 and leads the team with four homers and 10 RBI. … Giancarlo Stanton has picked it up a bit as he’s now 7-for-28 and just hit his first homer of the spring on Saturday. … Austin Wells has the inside track to be the No. 2 catcher as he’s hitting .296 with two homers and eight RBI. … Oscar Gonzalez is a longshot to earn a backup spot but he’s been hitting very well, .333 on a team-high 39 at bats. … The two Anthony’s are also having great springs. Volpe has a team-high 14 hits and is batting .368, while Rizzo has 13 hits and is at .433.