It Feels Like Yankees Missed a Few Opportunities on The Pitching Market

We are two weeks away from those four wonderful words that all of us baseball fans love - pitchers and catchers reporting. So today I thought I’d pose a few questions about this Yankees pitching staff as we near the beginning of spring training. Next Monday I’ll have some questions about the offense. As always, I hope you’re enjoying going back in time on Wednesdays with Pinstripe Past. Let’s get to it.

The Yankees made a valiant effort to try to sign Japanese pitching phenom Yoshinobu Yamamoto and in the end, the Dodgers had the inside track all along so Hal Steinbrenner’s $300 million offer didn’t matter.

The Dodgers - who apparently have an unlimited budget and clearly don’t give a shit about MLB’s luxury tax - gave him $325 million, and they probably didn’t even need to go that high because Yamamoto admitted his preference was always to be in Los Angeles teaming up with countryman Shohei Ohtani. For those of you scoring at home, those two players were given a little more than $1 billion.

The money in pro sports is so beyond absurd, but hey, this is the world we live in and unfortunately, even though the Yankees’ franchise valuation in the most recent Forbes list was $7.1 billion - second only to the $9 billion Dallas Cowboys - while the Dodgers were 25th at $4.8 billion, here we are with the Dodgers running laps around the Yankees and everyone else.

As I wrote here last month, I wasn’t too disappointed by the miss on Yamamoto. He may very well turn out to be great, in fact he probably will, but you never really know and to spend that kind of money on a pitcher who has yet to throw a single pitch in MLB seemed like a bit of a risk. Sort of like giving Aaron Judge - who we all love but a player already on the wrong side of 30 years old - an eight-year, $360 million contract. I’m ducking all of your incoming insults here!

As consolation prizes go, I liked the signing of Marcus Stroman to bolster the rotation, and I like some of the under-the-radar reliever signings Brian Cashman has made, but it still feels like there’s work to be done. For instance, at closer.

Clay Holmes has been fine, but the Yankees could have really made a splash by signing the dominant Josh Hader and thus push Holmes back to the eighth inning. Instead, one of the worst things possible could have happened; Hader got $95 million from the hated Astros. That felt like a missed opportunity.

Also, the Yankees are relying on several pitchers - namely Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Scott Effross, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Gil and Ron Marinaccio - to bounce back from either poor performances or troublesome injuries and be key contributors in 2024.

Here are a few key questions:

Why isn’t Corbin Burnes a Yankee?

If Hader was a missed opportunity, this one was way worse. Last Thursday night, the Orioles - who are already the favorite to win the AL East after their 101-win breakthrough last year - pulled the trigger on a trade that, for the life of me, I don’t know why the Yankees couldn’t.

The Brewers sent Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner and one of the best pitchers in MLB for several years, to Baltimore for two prospects projected to have good futures, shortstop Joey Ortiz and lefty pitcher D.L. Hall, plus the 34th overall pick in the 2024 draft.

I’m not going to pretend I know anything about Ortiz and Hall, but this feels like a package the Yankees could have matched, probably even bettered, and I say that because it doesn’t seem like the Orioles gave up too much.

Ortiz is the 63rd-ranked MLB prospect in the recently released MLB Pipeline top 100, but because they have so many good, young players, he was blocked from getting to Baltimore. He was an Orioles fourth-round draft pick in 2019 who had a great 2023 season at Triple-A Norfolk where he slashed .321 average/.378 on-base/.507 slugging with an OPS of .885, nine homers and 58 RBI while playing an excellent shortstop.

Hall was the Orioles’ 2017 first-round pick who made cameos in Baltimore in 2022 and 2023 where he pitched to a 4.36 ERA across 29 appearances out of the bullpen. During his time in Triple-A he has 39 appearances (29 starts) and a 4.51 ERA.

I don’t know if the Yankees were in the running, but if they were, I’m struggling to figure out why they couldn’t they get a deal across the goal line. Yeah, it takes two to tango and maybe the Brewers simply liked the Orioles players better. It might be as simple as that. But the Yankees could have come up with some combination including infielders Oswald Peraza, Orlando Cabrera, and Jorbit Vivas (who they just recently acquired from the Dodgers and is now on the 40-man roster), outfielder Everson Pereira, and pitchers Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, and Clayton Beeter, right?

Let’s compare Ortiz to what Peraza did at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2023. He slashed .268/.357/.479 for an OPS of .836 with 14 homers, 36 RBI, 16 stolen bases while playing three infield positions very well. Also, Peraza has more experience in the majors, and he’s two years younger at 23.

Again, I’m not on the conference call, so maybe Peraza was a non-starter in the conversation. But if he was on the table - and he should have been to me - he seems like the better prospect for Milwaukee than Ortiz. As for Hall, the Yankees grow those guys on trees, pitchers who throw hard and can flip between the rotation and bullpen.

If the Yankees are all in this year as they claim to be based on what they gave up to get one season of Juan Soto, Burnes - who will also be a free agent in 2024 - should have been a huge priority, especially at this price point. In six years with Milwaukee he pitched to a 3.26 ERA, a 1.055 WHIP which is elite, and in addition to winning the 2021 Cy Young he received votes in each of the last four years.

Imagine a rotation featuring Gerrit Cole, Burnes, Stroman, Rodon and either Cortes or Schmidt. If Rodon and Cortes rally as the Yankees believe they will, it could have been the best rotation in baseball. Instead, Burnes goes to the Orioles and makes them an even bigger favorite to win the division.

In case you missed what Aaron Boone thought about this, he said, “That could be a little bit of a problem.”

Yeah, no kidding.

Whatever happened to that Yamamoto $300 million?

The Yankees were ready to lavish that amount on Japan’s best pitcher. Once that died, why wasn’t that money allocated elsewhere? They used $37 million on Stroman, and Soto will get $31 million via arbitration, but what what about the rest of it?

They didn’t take on Burnes’ inexpensive $10 million salary, they are reportedly no longer in on pitcher Blake Snell and his expected $200 million, and it seems as if Jordan Montgomery, who may also command $200 million, isn’t interested in a reunion.

So, unless something is coming, are the Yankees done spending? Yes, they’ve made some smaller signings along the way, but a big chunk of that money is still sitting in the Steinbrenner portfolio.

I think Cashman still has some irons in the fire, at least I hope he does, because as he often says, roster construction doesn’t just happen in the offseason and he’s always on the prowl looking for ways to make the team better. I expect we will see a few more signings, and my guess is they will be bullpen additions that won’t stress the budget.

Will Carlos Rodon make us forget 2023?

That’s a pretty tough ask given the nightmare that Rodon’s first year in the Bronx was. It might have been the worst debut season by a big-ticket free agent signing in Yankees history. There have been some duds through the years, but Rodon’s ugly face plant was epic in nature - a 6.85 ERA in just 14 starts.

Cashman and Boone have both said Rodon has been down at the spring training facility since right after the holidays and he’s working hard to get ready for a bounce back year. The silly thing to say is that I think he will be better because seriously, how can he be any worse? But I do think Rodon will perform close to the level that one would expect for a guy making $27 million per year.

Why? First, the track record is there. Before 2023, Rodon had a 3.60 ERA and 1.239 WHIP in 152 career appearance with the White Sox and Giants. Second, his issue has always been his health and I think the guy used up all his bad injury luck last season. He got hurt almost as soon as spring training started last winter, and then he got hurt again, and then again. He was never healthy, so if he can avoid injury he’ll be able to be the pitcher the Yankees thought they were getting.

Should we have faith in the back of the rotation?

Man, I so want to like Clarke Schmidt. He’s such a good kid who works his ass off and is always accountable, but until he stops nibbling so much and gets better at putting hitters away, he’s never going to become a truly reliable rotation arm.

Last year he took the ball every fifth day and made 32 starts, second only to Cole. In a year when so many starters missed time, that was big. He got off to a bad start with a 6.84 ERA in April, he was very good in May-June (3.30), and then he struggled again over the final three months (4.93). When it was over, his final line showed a 4.64 ERA in 159 innings, a 3.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an inflated 1.352 WHIP.

I guess you could say that was about No. 5 starter level which is what he figures to be this year, but you need to be better in the AL East if you’re serious about winning a championship.

Then there’s Nestor Cortes. He was a fun story in 2022, but let’s be honest - that kind of came out of nowhere. He had never shown that level of execution at any point and then the planets aligned and he made the All-Star team and finished eighth in the Cy Young balloting thanks to a 2.44 ERA and incredible 0.922 WHIP.

Last season, with injuries sabotaging him, he took a big step backward, a 4.97 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in just 12 starts. If Cortes is healthy, I think he can help, but at best, he’s going to be somewhere between his 2022 and 2023 numbers. Again, probably not bad for a No. 4 or No. 5, but you want more. This is why not landing Burnes was a big deal.

Who will be the trusted back end bullpen options?

If they can stay healthy - I know, that’s asking a lot - Holmes as the closer with Loaisiga and Tommy Kahnle setting up is a workable threesome.

You can do worse than Holmes as the closer. He converted 24 of 27 save chances and had a 2.86 ERA, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.09 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Not great, but not bad. Holmes just needs to hone in on his control because there are too many appearances where he makes you sweat bullets.

Loaisiga has done a little closing and could be an option on the days Holmes isn’t available. However, his persistent injury problems make him someone you can’t trust. And in a limited sample size last season, he was terrible in key moments. He faced 38 batters in medium-to-high leverage situations and allowed eight runs on 12 hits and a walk with only two strikeouts. Maybe that was an aberration because in 2022, he was much better - 151 batters faced, 18 runs on 34 hits, 17 walks and 24 strikeouts.

Kahnle is always a bit unpredictable, not to mention volatile. He missed the first two months of 2023, then didn’t allow a run in his first 16 appearances. His next 16 appearances were brutal as he had a 6.59 ERA, before finishing strong with a 1.69 ERA in his last nine during the Yankees’ meaningless September.

Effross will be an interesting case as he returns after missing part of 2022 (when the Yankees acquired him at the trade deadline) and all of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. He has a live arm and if he’s back, he can certainly crack the back end threesome and lengthen the bullpen.

Ian Hamilton needs to build off a surprisingly nice year where he saw his first extended MLB work, while Marinaccio, who looked so promising in 2022, needs to rebound from a bad 2023. And then the Yankees hope that newcomers Cody Poteet, Cody Morris and Victor Gonzalez will get into the mix for the middle innings.