Juan Soto is Probably Going to Walk Away From The Yankees

It’s a pretty slow time of the year in baseball as the free agent market hasn’t taken shape, the awards have already been passed out, and news will only be coming sporadically, so in turn, the newsletter will be slowing down, too. But today, I wanted to get caught up on a few things and make a few announcements. Lets get to it.

The Juan Soto free agency tour is in full swing, and now that he has visited with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays, let the bidding begin. There may be a few other teams that will meet with him, maybe the Giants and Phillies, or a surprise team or two.

But if the price tag winds up being in the $600 million range that we keep hearing, the five teams he has met with seem like the only ones who would be willing to go there, though it’s also possible they won’t, and that includes the Yankees.

Soto at $600 million or more for however many years that winds up being is flat out crazy. Yes, he just turned 26, and it is rare that players his age accomplish as much as he already has, and then get to the open market. And yes, he is without question a generational hitter, perhaps the best pure hitter in baseball. However, is an average defender, not a great baserunner, and in a few years, he might wind up being a vastly overpaid DH.

I can understand why the Yankees - or any team - would be willing to walk away from him and use whatever money they had budgeted to Soto to fix several other areas on the team.

Hal Steinbrenner spoke to reporters Wednesday at the owners’ meetings in New York, and he made it clear that re-signing Soto is at the top of his offseason list.

“He’s definitely a significant part of why we got to the World Series,” Steinbrenner said. “I’ve got ears. I know what’s expected of me. So, look, it’s been a priority. We wouldn’t have gone out to the West Coast (to meet with Soto and his agent, Scott Boras) if it wasn’t.”

But while Steinbrenner didn’t say there would be a limit on what he was willing to commit to, it seems clear that there will be one, and we’ll have to see if that will be enough to reel Soto back in to the Bronx.

“No idea,” Steinbrenner said when he was asked if he had a sense that Soto was just going to sign with the highest bidder. “All I know is he’s earned this, and he’s going to go through the process. All I can tell you is, I do believe he enjoyed his time here. He’s close with Aaron Judge. He’s close with Aaron Boone. So we’ll see. But in the end, he needs to do what’s best for him and his family.”

A few days ago, former major leaguer Carlos Baerga, who has become a sort of newsbreaker when it comes to fellow Latin players, said he had it on good authority that the Mets have already offered $660 million for 15 years, and if it needs to be more, owner Steve Cohen is willing to do whatever it takes.

If that’s the case, Soto is going to be a Met, a point that Michael Kay drove home on his radio show. “I would put it this way and this is not something that Yankees fans are going to want to hear,” Kay told his listeners. “I don’t think the Yankees are going to go there. I don’t. Then I’ve heard from somebody in baseball today that Cohen’s willing to go $50 million over whatever anybody offers. So it looks like the Mets really want to get this guy. So, every report I’ve seen is that there have been no offers made but Baerga, who is usually locked into this stuff, said it’s $660 (million) for 15 years.

“I would think if Juan Soto returns to the Yankees,” Kay continued, “then their gambit of making that trade for him, well it paid off in one way, it got them to the World Series, he certainly played a large role, and that maybe he did fall in love with the experience and wants to come back. But if what I believe, that it’s going to come down to the most money, I simply think that’s going to be the Mets, I really do.”

Steinbrenner did admit that by clearing more than $50 million off the books by allowing Gleyber Torres, Clay Holmes, Tommy Kahnle, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo to enter free agency, “We’re in a better starting position than we were a year ago. We’ve got the ability to sign any player we want to sign.”

The question becomes this: If that Mets offer is real and Hal doesn’t match or better it, what will Brian Cashman do with the Soto money Hal left on the table?

If Soto does not return, they need a first baseman, a second baseman, and a left fielder at the very minimum, and that’s if we can assume Jasson Dominguez can win the center field job and Judge moves back to right. If Dominguez isn’t ready, then add center field to the wish list.

On the mound, the rotation is in decent shape if Marcus Stroman is the sixth man behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Nestor Cortes, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, but the bullpen will need replacements for Holmes and Kahnle at the very least.

Without question, losing Soto would be a blow, especially if it’s to the AL East rival Red Sox or Blue Jays. But if it happens, the Yankees have a real chance to fix multiple trouble spots on their roster, something they might not be able to do if Soto is eating up $50 million per year on the payroll.

Is Caleb Durbin the next second baseman?

Filling the hole at second base might be pretty cost efficient if Caleb Durbin wins the job in spring training, and at the GM meetings last week, Cashman mentioned Durbin a couple times, mostly in passing, when he met with reporters.

Boone said much more than Cashman when he gushed, “I think he’s a stud, frankly. Great bat-to-ball, elite ability on the bases as a base stealer, a good defender in the middle of the diamond at second base. He’s really started over the last year-plus to create some position flexibility, too. … Really competitive, kind of that hard-nosed, tough player. I’m excited for him. I think he’s going to play a big role for us this upcoming season.”

The 24-year-old was originally a 14th-round pick of the Braves in 2021 and was sent to the Yankees in a 2022 trade for reliever Lucas Luetge. Injuries have been a problem and in 2024 he missed significant time at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, though in the 82 games he played he was impressive with a slash line of .287/.396/.471 with 23 doubles, 10 homers, 60 RBIs and 29 steals.

He went to the Arizona Fall League and was selected as an AFL “Fall Star” and the AFL’s breakout prospect of the year when he batted .312/.427/.548 with five homers in 24 games while setting a league record with 29 stolen bases. That earned him a spot on the Yankees’ 40-man roster.

If Durbin isn’t ready, the Yankees could find one in free agency, perhaps Oswald Peraza would finally get a chance, or they could move Jazz Chisholm to second base which is his natural position, and then sign a third baseman in free agency. But I think it would be great if Durbin can win the job, especially given his speed which the Yankees desperately need, and then they can put their monetary resources into first base and the outfield.

At the the very top of my list for a first baseman is Arizona’s Christian Walker, a stud at the plate who has averaged 24 homers and has a .797 OPS since 2019 when he became a full-time player, and the 33-year-old is arguably the best defensive first baseman in MLB who has won a Gold Glove three years in a row.

Yankees take home two awards

One was inevitable, Aaron Judge winning the AL MVP unanimously, which was finally announced Thursday night. He had a season for the ages as he led MLB in WAR, homers, RBI, walks, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, and total bases. Runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. had a great season, and would have won the MVP in probably any other year, but not in 2024 trying to eclipse what Judge did. And before you raise an eyebrow, remember that the voting is done before the postseason so Judge’s October flop did not get factored in because it’s a regular season award.

Gil winning the AL rookie of the year was not as expected, though he was deserving. I thought Baltimore outfielder Colton Cowser had the inside track on this, but the voters thought otherwise, probably wooed by how great Gil was early in the season when he filled in for injured Gerrit Cole and pitched so well that he was actually being considered to start in the All-Star Game before he came down to earth a bit.

Gil became the first Yankees pitcher to win rookie of the year since Dave Righetti in 1981, and the first Yankee to win it since Judge in 2017. Cowser was second in the voting, and Yankees catcher Austin Wells was third. The 26-year-old Gil had a 2.03 ERA through 14 starts, then experienced control problems (he led MLB in walks) and he had a 5.15 ERA in his final 15 regular-season starts, finishing at 3.50 with 171 strikeouts.

A new radio voice for the Yankees

Now that John Sterling is presumably retired for good, the Yankees - after cycling through several radio voices last year - have signed Dave Sims to be their new play-by-play man, and I have to say, this is a very good thing.

Sims, who used to work in New York radio, has been the Mariners’ radio voice for more than 20 years and he’s considered one of the best in the business. He’s 71 years old so the Yankees certainly didn’t get an up-and-comer, but I think part of the reason for hiring Sims outside of his skill is that he is a long-time friend of Yankees’ analyst Suzyn Waldman who is now 78. They figure that relationship, plus their proximity in age, will make for a good fit. Anything would be better than the rotation we had to listen to last year.

To be honest, I’m kind of tired of Waldman. I wish she’d retire, but apparently she has no intention of doing so.

Time for some self-promotion

Although I wish it was growing faster, my subscriber base is a little more than 1,300 for the newsletter, so now I am asking that whatever you can do to promote the newsletter would be greatly appreciated.

You can do that in a variety of ways. Just copy and paste the subscribe link and share it on your various social media platforms. That could be Facebook, X, Bluesky, or wherever. You could even text it to friends and family. For many of you, I would guess Facebook is the best way to share. It’s about as simple as can be, and my hope is that it might reach Yankees fans who don’t know about the newsletter and would be interested in receiving it. Here’s that link: https://salmaiorana.beehiiv.com/subscribe. Just post it with a quick explanation like, “Hey, Yankees fans, you might really enjoy Sal Maiorana’s Pinstripe People newsletter. Click here to sign up for free.”

I’d also like you to know that I am now on the social media platform Bluesky which is growing rapidly. I’m not leaving X because I still have tens of thousands more followers there, including many of you, but if you’re inclined to start your own Bluesky account, I’d appreciate a follow there, just go to https://bsky.app/profile/salmaiorana.bsky.social. I have to say, I like the vibe there, and I really love that I don’t have to put up with ads and all the garbage that the X algorithm sends into my feed.

As for my Bills coverage, many of you have asked if I produce a Bills newsletter. I do, but in order to receive it, you must be a subscriber to the Democrat and Chronicle. If you already are, and you don’t know about the newsletter, it’s called Bills Blast and it comes out the day before each game. You can receive it by following this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast/.

Also concerning the Bills, I am doing a new podcast called BLEAV in Bills along with Adam Benigni who is a sports television anchor at channel 2 in Buffalo. We would love you to subscribe to the show wherever you listen to pods such as Apple and Spotify. Here’s the Apple link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bleav-in-bills/id1528124684. And here’s the Spotify link: https://open.spotify.com/show/4soNqkDzQCsaxtILPiY2mF?si=d6336d447b104684

Lastly, for my next season-long history project for the newsletter, I’m going to post once a week about every World Series the Yankees have won. The stories will run chronologically starting with the 1923 championship, and will end at 2000 because I just did a whole year of posts on the 2009 title season. That will be getting started pretty soon.

I know many of you aren’t interested in history, but this is readily available content that I can produce for you without killing myself (remember, this newsletter is a side gig for me) because I’ll be excerpting from my book “A Lifetime of Yankee Octobers” which was published more than 20 years ago. I hope those of you who appreciate history will enjoy these posts.