Are the Yankees a True Championship Contender?

Well, we made it through the winter and baseball is finally upon us. Today, I give you my Yankees season preview, and as I explain down below, I have lower expectations for this team than most. I hate to say that, but you know I’m demanding, and this aging and injury-plagued team has plenty to prove in my view.

You probably saw earlier this week that Forbes came out with its annual valuations of each major league team and to the surprise of no one, the Yankees are No. 1. Forbes calculates the franchise is worth $7.1 billion which dwarfs the next most valuable team, the bargain bin Dodgers at $4.8 billion and the $4.5 billion Red Sox.

Frankly, I have no idea how Forbes comes to these numbers because it’s not like any of these teams open their books for a full audit, but the Yankees have been No. 1 on the list every year since Forbes first started publishing it in 1998.

George Steinbrenner bought the Yankees in 1972 for $10 million. In other words, that’s about what the Yankees will pay Aaron Judge in the first six weeks of this 2023 season. I’m not remotely smart enough to figure out what the return is on a $10 million investment that has become $7.1 billion, but let’s just say it’s far better than one World Series title since 2000 for a team that is worth $7.1 billion.

Altogether now: “Sal, you’re being an asshole!”

But am I?

Since the Yankees won their first world championship in 1923, they have endured only two World Series droughts longer than the one they’re currently in. The longest was from 1979-95, and they also went from 1963-76 without a celebratory trip through the Canyon of Heroes, a 14-year epoch which they will match if they don’t win this year.

As we get ready for Opening Day Thursday at Yankee Stadium against the San Francisco Giants, I’m going to be straight up honest with you as I always am: I don’t think the drought ends this year. This is a good team, no doubt about that, and I expect the Yankees to surpass 90 wins just as they have 20 times in the last 26 years (not counting the 2020 COVID year).

But I’m not sure that will be good enough to win the rugged AL East where Toronto and Tampa Bay are legitimate threats, Baltimore is a team on the rise, and Boston is, well, always a pain in the ass. And I certainly don’t see this Yankees team overtaking the Astros in the American League.

I’m sorry to sound so negative before a pitch has even been thrown - and of course I hope I’m wrong - this team just doesn’t feel like a champion to me. I’m excited that the Yankees are going to let Anthony Volpe start the season at shortstop, but there’s just not a lot else that moves me. I’ve read several of the national media pundits lauding how fantastic this roster is and my answer to that would be, “Yeah, if it was 2018.”

To me, this is a big-name, big-money roster with way too much age and injury risk. Eight of the primary position players - Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, D.J. LeMahieu, Jose Trevino, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Higashioka - are on the wrong side of 30. And there are also eight pitchers 30 or more - Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Domingo German, Frankie Montas, Wandy Peralta, Lou Trivino, Clay Holmes, and Tommy Kahnle.

Father Time is undefeated and already, half the pitching staff is starting the season on the injured list including three-fifths of what was supposed to be the starting rotation (Rodon, Montas, and 29-year-old Luis Severino), in addition to three of the relievers the Yankees were counting on for the high leverage innings (Kahnle and Trivino, plus Scott Effross who is out for the season).

Like I said, I hope I’m wrong. I hope the Yankees find a way to win back-to-back AL East titles for the first time since 2011-12, and can win their first World Series since 2009, but it’s tough for me to see it.

Here’s my preview of the team as it stands on this Monday morning, knowing that moves could be made this week - or another five guys could get hurt - that would alter some of this:

Outfield: There might be a different threesome every night

Harrison Bader’s injury has thrown the outfield into a bit of chaos because it has forced Aaron Boone to try several players in different combinations. In a perfect world, Bader would be in center, Judge would be in right, and Stanton, Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera would do a time-share in left.

What sucks most about Bader’s injury is it probably means we’re doomed to seeing more of Hicks because not only was he slated to be the starter in left, he can also slide over to center, his natural position. Judge proved he could play there last year, but I’m sure the Yankees would prefer he plays mostly right field and DH to save some wear and tear on that $360 million investment.

The Yankees need Stanton to contribute more in the field, certainly more than the 38 games he played last season. He has said he thinks he’s a better hitter when he’s fully immersed in the game, and if he’s not clogging up the DH spot every day, it frees opportunities for Judge, LeMahieu, Donaldson and Rizzo when they need a break from the field.

If Isiah Kiner-Falefa stays on the team, which looks to be the case, the experiment with him playing the outfield should be an emergency-only option. I’d much rather see Cabrera out there than IKF because that also gets a lefty bat into the lineup.

In fact, until Bader returns, I’d be fine with a threesome of Stanton in left, Cabrera in center and Judge in right, with Hicks in reserve. The Yankees also have to make decisions on what to do with Estevan Florial who is out of minor-league options, and veteran non-roster invitees Willie Calhoun and Rafael Ortega who have each seen plenty of playing time in the spring.

Infield: Anthony Volpe makes the final roster

I’ve been saying right along that I thought the Yankees would start with Oswald Peraza at short because he’s on the 40-man roster, he played a little at the MLB level last year including the postseason, and he has much more accrued experience in Triple-A. Volpe has just 99 Triple-A plate appearances, he wasn’t not on the 40-man roster, and sending him down means saving an extra year before be can become a free agent.

However, as the spring wore on, there was no doubt who the best shortstop on the team was, so I’m glad the Yankees - who too often slow play their best prospects in the minors because they always have overpaid veterans taking up roster spots - recognized this.

“We entered camp with an open competition; we said it publicly and we said it privately,” Brian Cashman said. “The obvious exclamation point here is Anthony Volpe came into camp and took this position. He should be congratulated. It was well played. He’s earned the right to take that spot for the New York Yankees as we open the 2023 season. We’re excited for him and excited for us.”

Peraza is probably still the slicker fielder, but Volpe isn’t far behind, and at the plate it’s not even a contest. As of Sunday when he was given the news that he had won the job, Volpe’s slash line was .314/.417/.647 with an OPS of 1.064. He had six doubles, a triple, three homers, five RBI and five stolen bases. If he had gone down to Triple-A, that would have been a sin.

It would have been pointless to waste at bats in Triple-A. Get him rolling now, learning how to play in the major leagues so that later in the season, he’ll be prepared for the pressure of September and October. That’s what the Yankees did back in 1996 with a rookie shortstop named Derek Jeter.

What does that mean for Peraza? He’s probably headed to Triple-A unless the Yankees trade IKF for something, which I don’t expect to happen. The good news on LeMahieu is he seems to be healthy and has had a strong spring at the plate. The problem with LeMahieu is that he has broken down at the end of the last two seasons and that’s been tough because LeMahieu’s versatility is such a nice luxury for Aaron Boone to have.

As for the corners, Rizzo and Donaldson are clearly on the back ends of their careers. Rizzo still has pop as he hit 32 homers last year, and he should manage a few more hits this season with the shift mostly gone, but he is not the same player he was during his time with the Cubs. Even in the field, he’s been good for the Yankees, but he’s not great like he was in Chicago where he won four Gold Gloves.

Donaldson is still very good in the field, and he has apparently made changes to his swing, but I’m not expecting much. The Yankees are stuck with him because of his untradeable contract, so hopefully he can do more than the lame 15 homers and .222/.308/.374 slash line he put up in 2022.

One area where the Yankees should be fine is catcher. Jose Trevino had a nice debut season for the Yankees and now the trick will be to prove it wasn’t a fluke. He earned a Gold Glove last year, and that was enough to excuse the big dip his offense took in the second half of the season. And you can do worse than Kyle Higashioka as the backup. Still, I’m kind of done with Higgy so if Ben Rortvedt can ever stay healthy for more than five minutes, I’d like to see what he can do as a potential Higgy replacement.

Starting rotation: Never-ending frustration with Severino

Prior to Saturday’s news that Severino is hurt yet again and will start the season on the injured list, I was going to write in this space that it’s a very big year for the right-hander. After such a promising start to his career in 2017 and 2018 when he made a combined 63 starts and went 33-14 with a 3.14 ERA, 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.64 strikeout to walk ratio, the Yankees signed him to a four-year, $40 million contract before 2019.

Since then, this is what they’ve gotten: Just 120 innings across 22 starts and a 9-4 record. Yes, his 2.85 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 10.3 strikeouts per nine is nice, but those numbers mean virtually nothing when compared to his perpetual unavailability. From 2019-21 he made only three starts (he missed all of 2020) and then last year made 19, though he still missed two months because of a lat strain, the same injury that felled him the other day.

The Montas trade is a disaster and he probably won’t be a part of the rotation until late in the year, if he even makes it back. And Rodon, the big-money free agent, probably won’t pitch until May. What a mess.

So now, what looked like potentially the best five-man rotation in MLB is reduced to Cole, Nestor Cortes who is just rounding into shape after dealing with a hamstring issue, German, wildly inconsistent Clarke Schmidt, and some fifth guy who will probably be Johnny Brito or Randy Vasquez.

I’m not sure what this means, but Saturday, Vazquez pitched four shutout innings against most of the Phillies starting lineup, and Sunday, Brito pitched 5.1 hitless innings against a watered down Blue Jays lineup. Both looked really good.

As I said earlier, trading IKF, or maybe even Torres which I have honked the horn on for months, to get either a reliever or now maybe a starter, is something Cashman should consider.

Bullpen: Clay Holmes has to lock in as the closer

With the rotation in shambles, it will be more important than ever for the Yankees bullpen to be not only reliable, but very good. Cole and Cortes will usually be able to give the Yankees some length, but German, Schmidt and whoever they send out in that fifth spot are rarely going to get past five innings. German went at least five in nine of his 15 starts last year, while the longest Schmidt has ever lasted in his five career starts is 4.1 innings.

That’s a lot of innings Boone will need to get from his relievers, and at least early in the year, he won’t have Trivino and Kahnle to help. The Yankees desperately need Michael King to pitch the way he did before he got hurt last July when he held batters to a .192 average against and had a 2.65 ERA, and they need Ron Marinaccio to build on a strong rookie season that saw him hold batters to a .149 average thanks largely to a stretch when he threw 15 straight scoreless outings and 22 out of 23 during the middle of the year on the way to a 2.05 ERA.

And at the back end, Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes must deal with the pressure of closing out games. Loaisiga was outstanding in 2021 and then he struggled for much of 2022 before turning in a strong postseason when he gave up just one earned run in 9.1 innings. If he can be the eighth-inning bridge to Holmes, that would be big.

Of course, Holmes still has to prove he can be a lock down closer. We all remember how incredible he was during the first half of 2022 when he took the job away from Aroldis Chapman and was almost unhittable. By July 7 he had appeared in 37 games, saved 16, and in 38 innings he gave up two earned runs for an ERA of 0.46.

From then on, he pitched 25 times, battled an injury, blew as many games as he saved (four), lost his command and had an awful 5.61 ERA. Like Loiasiga, he was solid in the postseason with six scoreless innings, so the hope is that Holmes can harness some of the dynamic form he showed early and then late in 2022.

Wandy Peralta was great in 2022 and he’s back to be a Swiss Army knife who Boone can use at almost any point in a game. And then Boone has to find some depth among pitchers like Albert Abreu, Greg Weissert, and Matt Krook who seem like the favorites to go north with the club.