The 2024 Season Preview: Here Are Nine Key Questions

Today, I’m going to offer up a preview of the upcoming season by posing nine questions that will very likely - depending on how the Yankees answer them - dictate the course of 2024. I’ve said it a few times in the newsletter, and on X for those of you who follow me there - my faith regarding this iteration of Yankees baseball is not strong. 

There’s just too many potential pratfalls that could sink them - obviously, injuries being the biggest one, but also their advancing age at several spots, and a very tough AL East. Then again, there’s a lot of talent on this team, so without question, if things go their way, the Yankees can certainly contend for the division or earn a wild-card berth.

With the start of the season,  for those who are new to the group, we go into regular-season mode this week. In addition to Pinstripe Past on Wednesday and 2009 Yankees: The Last Championship on Saturdays, I’ll have the trademark series review editions that will come out the morning after each series is complete, so look for the first one next Monday after the four games with Houston. Lets get to it.

The season starts Thursday and the Yankees sure don’t get to ease into things in 2024 as they open with four games in Houston against their perennial nemesis, the Astros, then go to Arizona for three against the defending NL champion Diamondbacks. Thanks, MLB schedule maker.

Not to sound all pessimistic in the first couple paragraphs here, but the Yankees might find themselves in a hole in the AL East by the time their first week of games is finished. Yes, there will be 155 games to go, but in this division with the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays, they can’t afford to get off to a painfully slow start.

Here are my nine questions, in no particular order of importance.

1. Can they survive the absence of Gerrit Cole for at least the first two months, and probably more?

This was such a tremendous blow to the Yankees because even with Cole locked and loaded, their rotation is so shaky. Just based on the optimistic timeline that he’ll be out until at least late May, he’s going to miss around 10 or 11 starts. I think he’s going to be out longer, and then you have to factor in that he’s not going to just jump right back to being a seven- or eight-inning stud, so his early starts will require more help from the bullpen.

My prediction is that if his nerve problem and inflammation responds well to rest, medication and then the spring training-like ramp up, Cole won’t be Cole until at least mid-June, maybe the start of July. Will it be too late to matter by then?

With Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt all moving up one spot, the Yankees have to find a reliable fifth starter and the options aren’t exactly promising. There’s a reason why Luke Weaver has been on five teams since the start of 2022. Luis Gil looked great in the spring (a 2.87 ERA and a team-high 23 strikeouts in 15.2 innings), but I would imagine the Yankees want to slow play him as he returns from Tommy John surgery. Cody Poteet was lousy (9.00 ERA), and then there’s Will Warren who the Yankees certainly like, but he has never pitched an inning in MLB. His WHIP in five outings is a hefty 1.500. Who gets the fifth man gig? Does it matter?

2. Will Rodon bounce back from his nightmarish first season as a Yankee?

My feeling all along has been yes, he will. Last year was brutal because he got hurt twice before the season even started, missed the first three months, and he never found his groove which led to one of the worst debut seasons for a big-money Yankee free agent ever. Seriously, can you think of one that was worse?

Rodon has proven during his career that he can be a great pitcher - he was an All-Star in 2021 and 2022. He’s even been an ace, and that’s the role he will have to take on in Cole’s absence. But here’s my biggest concern with him. He’s a two-pitch pitcher and that’s not great when you’re a starter. It’s fine for a reliever when you’re out there for an inning or two, but starters need to have more diversity in the repertoire and he doesn’t have it.

He throws four-seam fastballs that top out around 95-96 mph, and then he has his slider which comes in around 86-88 with downward break. If either of those pitches, or both, aren’t working on a particular day, he’s throwing batting practice. It’s a little surprising to me that the Yankees pitching gurus haven’t tried to develop another pitch for him to go to. He has tinkered with a curve, a cutter and a changeup, but he rarely throws them in bulk. Maybe they have tried and he can’t do it. In that case, $162 million for this guy seems like a poor investment.

3. Are Cortes and Schmidt capable of taking the ball every fifth day?

Continuing on with the rotation, while the big concern is filling the No. 5 spot, what about the Nos. 3 and 4 spots? I’ve said that I like Schmidt and I think he’s going to emerge this year as a reliable option. Last year was a mixed bag for him - he started terribly, pitched very well in the middle, and then fell off again towards the end. He made 32 starts which was great, but his ERA was 4.64 and his WHIP was 1.352 and both numbers have to improve. But I think he can find some consistency from start to start this year and give the Yankees a few more elongated outings which would lessen the workload on the bullpen.

Cortes is a conundrum for me. He caught everyone by surprise in 2022 with his 2.44 ERA, 0.992 WHIP, and All-Star appearance, and I loved the way he pitched because he was a throwback to a bygone era. He wasn’t all about throwing 100 and striking everyone out, he was a pitcher who had a variety of pitches, coming from a variety of arm angles, and it had batters off kilter most of the year.

But in 2023, it just felt like everyone watched video of Cortes, figured out his pitch sequencing and location preferences, and were no longer getting fooled by his junk. His ERA soared to 4.97 and his WHIP went up to 1.247. Yes, he was hurt and that was obviously part of the problem, but even now that he’s healthy, I wonder about his ability to get back to the success he had in 2022. It would be great if he does because the Yankees desperately need for that to happen, but also, Cortes is a fun guy to root for.

4. Is Anthony Volpe ready to take a big step forward on offense?

Here’s what a scout told one of the Yankee beat writers about what he saw from the Yankees shortstop in the spring: “If he can maintain some of this contact, he’s going to be quite a catalyst. Could see him moving up to the leadoff spot at some point. We’re just scratching the surface with the kid.”

Let’s hope that’s the case because with DJ LeMahieu incapable of staying healthy, not to mention his offensive metrics plummeting the last couple of years, the Yankees might need to move Volpe to the top of the order. He made changes to his swing in the offseason and it sure looked like the tweaks paid off as he was hitting .314 with four stolen bases through Sunday.

He wasn’t swinging for the fences so he struck out less, he was putting the ball in play all over the field, and then once he was on base, his speed became a major weapon. That’s exactly what the Yankees need, Volpe on base in front of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge to kickstart the offense each night.

5. What are the Yankees doing at third base?

LeMahieu is a concern because he can’t stay on the field. When he’s healthy and at his best, he’s an important player on this roster because he can play three infield positions very capably, and his bat can be a weapon. But here’s the thing: At 35 years old, his range at third base and even second base is shrinking, and he has underperformed at the plate for three years. He won the AL batting title in the shortened 2020 season with a .364 average and he’s been on a downhill slide ever since - .268 in 2021, .261 in 2022 and a career-worst .243 in 2023.

If he’s not ready for Opening Day, and probably a little beyond that which seems likely to be the case, are we really going to be watching Oswaldo Cabrera at the hot corner? He’s a fun-loving kid who I like, and his ability to play everywhere is a nice piece to have, but that should only be in short doses. Cabrera as a full-time starter at third base would not be ideal.

What really sucks is that this would have been the perfect opportunity for Oswald Peraza to show the Yankees that he really is the prospect they thought he was, but he’s out for two months with a shoulder injury. Of course he is, because not even the kids are immune to injuries on this team. It would not surprise me if the Yankees make a trade or a waiver claim for a third baseman before they take on the Astros Thursday.

6. What can the Yankees realistically expect from Giancarlo Stanton?

Stanton was Stanton in the spring. Useless for at bats on end, and then he had that one day where he was Superman and hit three home runs, all of them moon shots. The best thing I can say about him right now is that at least he didn’t get hurt during the exhibition season, so that’s something.

Actually, he had a decent spring. Through Sunday he was hitting .317 and had a team-best 11 RBI, so maybe there’s some life there thanks to the offseason program he underwent, dropping some weight so he could be slightly more athletic.

I’m not holding my breath on Stanton making a big turnaround. His best days are long behind him, and while he’s going to have his big games, there’s going to be too much wretchedness in between and unless that changes, the Yankees can’t just automatically grant him a place in the everyday lineup.

He clogs up the DH spot and the Yankees need to be more rotational because Aaron Judge will need breaks from playing center field; Juan Soto is a poor defender so you don’t want him in right field every day; Anthony Rizzo will need days away from first base; and there may even be days when Jose Trevino is catching and they’ll want Austin Wells at DH if he’s hitting the ball the way he’s capable.

Stanton prevents a lot of that from happening and at this point, if he gets into one of his patented weekslong slumps, the Yankees should stop caring about what his salary is and play the best guys.

7. Will Soto and Judge be the most dynamic 1-2 punch in baseball?

Of course it’s possible. By most estimations, they are two of the top-10 offensive players in the game and they’re going to be hitting back-to-back in some form. I prefer Soto at No. 2 and Judge at No. 3 and it seems like Aaron Boone does as well because Soto is an on-base machine and Judge is a slugging RBI machine.

I’ve seen some projections that these two could combine for 100 home runs or more. I don’t think that will happen because you know Judge will get hurt at some point, and Soto’s career-high for homers is 35 and that’s because he draws a ton of walks and is a gap-to-gap line drive hitter who hits doubles in his sleep. He has said that while the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium is tempting, he’s not going to change his approach just so that he can chase home runs. I love that he said that.

Judge and Soto could both be .400 on-base percentage hitters this season and that would help the Yankees offense almost as much as if they both hit 50 home runs, so long as the other guys they’re counting on - Rizzo, Stanton, Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo - do their part.

8. Is Clay Holmes ready to be a dominant lockdown closer?

As Yankees fans, we have never gotten over the level of comfort Mariano Rivera provided in the closer role for 16 years. Many have tried, most have driven us nuts, topped by the wildly inconsistent Aroldis Chapman who could light a game on fire as easily as he could douse the flames.

Holmes isn’t as volatile as Chapman, but there are times when he makes things uncomfortable. This is a big year for him because he’s eligible for free agency in 2025 and he’s going to want to cash in, and the best way to do that is save games when he’s asked to save them. Last year he did that 24 out of 27 times with a 2.86 ERA. You can certainly do worse than Holmes in this key spot, and when he’s on, he can be one of MLB’s best. If the Yankees are going to make noise this year, Holmes needs to be a hammer at the end of games.

9. Who will emerge as the late-inning set-up men in the bullpen?

Getting the ball to Holmes is the more pertinent question. Here’s a shocker: Tommy Kahnle is hurt again and won’t be available at the start of the season. Another shocker: Jonathan Loaisiga was dealing with something and pitched only three times, and not well with a 7.36 ERA. It’s uncertain what he’ll be able to give the Yankees in the early going. Both of them can be so good when they’re available; but that’s the dilemma, right?

Caleb Ferguson came over from the Dodgers and was supposed to be a late-inning man but he had a pretty forgettable spring with a 12.27 ERA, and Ron Marinaccio was terrible and was sent down to Triple-A. That leaves Ian Hamilton and newcomers Nick Burdi, Victor Gonzalez, Cody Poteet and possibly Dennis Santana.

I don’t know about you, but this pitching staff doesn’t exactly engender confidence.